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General 1 Year EN Jun 9, 2026

Bitcoin On-Chain Analyst Report — 2026-06-09

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⛓ BGeometrics On-Chain Analyst Report

Report Date: Tuesday, June 9, 2026  |  Analysis Scope: 1 Year  |  Cycle Context: Post-Halving Year 2 (April 2024 Halving)
⚠ EXTREME FEAR — Score: 10
Special Focus: This report prioritizes analysis of the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple and its behavior over the past 12 months, integrated throughout all sections.
📋 1. Executive Summary
  • Severe bear phase in progress: BTC price at $63,109.62 (2026-06-08) has collapsed −42.7% from the 1-year high of $124,824.45 (Oct 2025), sitting at only the 4th percentile of the 1-year range — a dramatic reversal from what was a confirmed bull market just 8 months ago.
  • VDD Multiple at historically low levels: The VDD Multiple ↗ reads 0.3591, placing it at the 16th all-time percentile (all-time range: 0.0689–4.4624). Over the past year, VDD has declined from elevated readings above 1.0 during the Oct 2025 peak to current deeply suppressed levels, signaling that long-dormant coins are not moving — consistent with capitulation-adjacent HODLing behavior rather than active distribution.
  • All sentiment and valuation metrics in fear/capitulation territory: NUPL ↗ at 0.1584 (Fear zone, 19th all-time percentile); MVRV ↗ at 1.1881 (18th all-time percentile); Fear & Greed at 10 (Extreme Fear, 7th percentile of 1-year range) — the confluence of these signals is consistent with prior cycle bottoming zones.
  • Institutional and ETF flows have turned sharply negative: The most recent ETF flow reading (2026-06-05) shows −5,418 BTC net outflow, with cumulative ETF holdings at 625,742 BTC. The 30-day ETF flow trend is decisively negative, reflecting institutional de-risking that has accelerated the price decline since May 2026.
  • Both LTH and STH are realizing net losses: NRPL (USD) ↗ at −$2.50M; NRPL-LTH at −$236.58M; NRPL-STH at −$57.30M — the rare condition where even long-term holders are booking losses, historically a hallmark of late-stage capitulation.
Overall Market Condition Verdict: Bitcoin is in an advanced corrective/capitulation phase — approximately 8–10 months into a bear cycle that began from the October 2025 peak — with on-chain metrics broadly aligned with historically attractive accumulation zones, though confirmation of a bottom requires stabilization of VDD, NUPL recovery above 0.25, and a reversal in ETF flows.
Confidence: Medium — multiple metrics confirm the bear phase, but the absence of a clear VDD spike (capitulation flush) and ongoing institutional outflows introduce uncertainty about the precise bottom timing.
🔄 2. Market Cycle Position

Bitcoin's most recent halving occurred in April 2024. Historically, the post-halving cycle follows a pattern: accumulation (months 1–6), bull run (months 6–18), blow-off top (months 18–24), and bear/recovery (months 24–48). We are currently approximately 26 months post-halving, placing us squarely in the early-to-mid bear phase of the cycle — consistent with the 2022 analog (which saw the bear phase begin ~14 months post-halving in June 2022).

MetricCurrentAll-Time PercentileCycle Phase Signal
MVRV ↗1.188118thNeutral-Bearish
NUPL ↗0.158419thFear Zone
RHODL Ratio1,315.01—Accumulation
AVIV0.808924thNeutral-Low
VDD Multiple ↗0.359116thHODLing / Bottom Zone
MVRV at 1.1881 (18th all-time percentile): Price is only 18.8% above the realized price of $53,154. Historical cycle bottoms have occurred when MVRV approaches or dips below 1.0 (e.g., MVRV ~0.7–0.8 in Dec 2018, ~0.8 in Nov 2022). Current reading suggests we are in the late bear / early accumulation zone but not yet at maximum pain.
NUPL at 0.1584 — Fear zone (0–0.25). The threshold for capitulation is NUPL < 0. We are approaching but have not yet breached that level. The 1-year trend shows NUPL declining from 0.5728 (Jun 2025, Optimism) → 0.1584 (Jun 2026, Fear), a −72.3% collapse.
RHODL at 1,315 and VDD at 0.3591 both indicate that long-term holders are not spending their coins — a classic accumulation signal seen at prior cycle lows (2018–2019, 2022–2023).

Cycle verdict: Late Bear / Early Accumulation Phase — analogous to Q3–Q4 2022 in the prior cycle. The 4-year halving cycle context suggests the next major bull phase could begin in late 2026 to early 2027, assuming historical patterns hold.

📊 3. On-Chain Signals Table
Metric Value (Date) Historical Context & Threshold 30d Trend Signal
MVRV ↗ 1.1881 (2026-06-08) 18th all-time percentile. Range: 0.40–443.98. Avg: 2.26. <1.0 = capitulation; >3.5 = top. 1-year change: −49.1%. ↘ Falling (from 1.33 on Jun 1) Neutral
NUPL ↗ 0.1584 (2026-06-08) 19th all-time percentile. <0 = Capitulation; 0–0.25 = Fear; 0.25–0.5 = Hope; 0.5–0.75 = Optimism; >0.75 = Euphoria. 1-year change: −72.3%. ↘ Falling sharply (from 0.25 on Jun 1) Bearish
SOPR ↗ 0.9942 (2026-06-08) 17th all-time percentile. <1.0 = coins sold at loss; >1.0 = profit. 1-year change: −1.9%. Avg: 1.0048. ↘ Below 1.0 (loss territory) Bearish
Reserve Risk ↗ 0.0005 (2026-06-08) 2nd all-time percentile. Range: 0.0004–1.0. <0.002 = attractive buy zone; >0.02 = sell zone. Historically lowest readings signal maximum HODLing conviction. → Flat / near all-time low Bullish
VDD Multiple ↗ 0.3591 (2026-06-08) 16th all-time percentile. Range: 0.069–4.462. Avg: 1.068. <0.5 = low coin destruction / HODLing; >2.0 = distribution/top risk. 1-year: declined from ~1.5+ at Oct 2025 peak. See Section 6 for full VDD analysis. ↘ Declining (from ~0.5 in May) Bullish
Fear & Greed ↗ 10 (2026-06-09) Extreme Fear (0–24). 1-year range: 5–79. Current at 7th percentile of 1-year range. 1-year change: −83.9%. Last Extreme Greed reading was Jul 2025 (73). ↘ Extreme Fear (from 23 on Jun 2) Bullish (contrarian)
CDD-90dma ↗ 7.93M (2026-06-08) Elevated CDD = old coins moving (distribution). Low CDD = HODLing. Current reading of 7.93M is moderate; peak readings during bull markets can exceed 50–100M. Consistent with low VDD. → Moderate / stable Neutral
NRPL (USD) ↗ −$2.50M (2026-06-09) 8th percentile of 1-year range (−$139.98M to +$1.67B). Negative = net losses being realized. 1-year change: −700.5%. LTH-NRPL: −$236.58M; STH-NRPL: −$57.30M. Both cohorts in loss. ↘ Deeply negative (worsening) Bearish
Key Confluence: Reserve Risk (2nd percentile), VDD Multiple (16th percentile), and MVRV (18th percentile) are all in historically rare low territory — a combination that has historically preceded major bull market recoveries. However, NUPL, SOPR, and NRPL remain in bearish/loss territory, indicating the capitulation process may not be fully complete.
🏦 4. ETF & Institutional Flows
−5,418 BTC
Latest Daily ETF Net Flow (2026-06-05)
625,742 BTC
Cumulative ETF Holdings (2026-06-05)
DISTRIBUTING
Institutional Trend (30-day)

The ETF flow data ↗ paints a clear picture of institutional distribution over the past 6–8 weeks:

  • May–June 2026 outflow acceleration: The ETF flow series shows a sharp deterioration: −8,426 BTC (2026-05-18), −3,519 BTC (2026-05-07), −1,504 BTC (2026-05-29), and −5,418 BTC (2026-06-05). This is the most sustained outflow streak since January–February 2026.
  • January–February 2026 was the prior major outflow episode: Flows of −7,910 BTC (2026-01-21), −6,067 BTC (2026-01-30), and −4,125 BTC (2026-02-11) coincided with the price decline from ~$92K to ~$65K.
  • Peak institutional accumulation was July–October 2025: Flows of +9,439 BTC (2025-07-10), +6,354 BTC (2025-09-10), and +3,772 BTC (2025-09-30) aligned with the price peak at $124,824 in October 2025.
  • 1-year ETF flow average: +224 BTC/period (barely positive), with the current reading at the 25th percentile of the 1-year range — confirming net distribution bias in recent weeks.
Institutional Verdict: Institutions are actively distributing. The current outflow streak, combined with a price at 4% of the 1-year range, suggests forced selling or risk-off repositioning. A reversal to sustained positive ETF flows (>+2,000 BTC/day for 5+ consecutive days) would be a key bullish trigger to watch.
⛏ 5. Mining & Network Health
905.33 EH/s
Hashrate (2026-06-08)
0.5975
Puell Multiple (2026-06-08)
726,338 BTC
Miner Reserves (2025-10-27)*
LOW PRESSURE
Miner Selling Pressure

*Miner balance data last available: 2025-10-27. More recent data unavailable — confidence in current miner reserve assessment is low.

  • Hashrate at 905.33 EH/s — at the 37th percentile of the 1-year range (672M–1.31B). The 1-year change is +2.4%, indicating network security remains robust despite the price decline. The hashrate peaked around 1.24B EH/s in October 2025 and has since moderated. The current reading is below the 1-year average of 995.57M EH/s, suggesting some miner capitulation/exit but not a catastrophic collapse.
  • Puell Multiple ↗ at 0.5975 — below 1.0, indicating miners are earning significantly less than the annual average in USD terms. Historical buy zones for Puell are <0.5 (deep capitulation) to <1.0 (undervalued miner revenue). Current reading is in the attractive accumulation zone for miners. Values >4.0 historically signal tops.
  • Miner selling pressure: With Puell at 0.5975 and VDD Multiple at 0.3591 (16th percentile), the data suggests miners are HODLing rather than aggressively selling. Low VDD is particularly telling — it means even miners with old coins are not moving them, consistent with a "wait and see" posture ahead of an anticipated recovery.
  • Network health: Despite the bear market, hashrate remains within 10% of its 1-year average, demonstrating that the mining ecosystem is stressed but not broken. This is a positive structural signal for Bitcoin's long-term security.
Mining Verdict: Miner selling pressure is low-to-moderate. Puell Multiple in the buy zone (<1.0) and VDD suppression both suggest miners are not capitulating en masse. Watch for Puell <0.5 as a deeper distress signal, or a hashrate drop >20% from current levels as evidence of forced miner shutdowns.
🔬 6. Holder Behavior — VDD Multiple Deep Dive (1-Year Focus)
⭐ USER FOCUS: Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple — 12-Month Behavioral Analysis
The VDD Multiple measures the ratio of current Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) to the 1-year average CDD. A value >1.0 means old coins are moving more than usual (distribution risk); <1.0 means HODLing dominates. Current: 0.3591 — at the 16th all-time percentile.
VDD Multiple — 12-Month Narrative Arc

Reconstructing the VDD trajectory from the CDD-90dma and corroborating metrics over the past year reveals four distinct behavioral phases:

PeriodPrice RangeVDD RegimeInterpretationSignal
Jun–Oct 2025 $105K–$124K ~1.0–1.5+ (Elevated) Bull market peak — old coins moving at above-average rate. LTH distribution into strength. NUPL was 0.50–0.58 (Optimism). MVRV 2.0–2.4. VDD elevated signals smart money taking profits at ATH vicinity. Distribution
Nov–Dec 2025 $86K–$106K ~0.8–1.2 (Declining) Price correction begins. VDD starts falling as fewer old coins are moved — early HODLers stop selling. NUPL drops from Optimism (0.51) to Hope (0.35). MVRV falls from 1.94 to 1.55. Fear & Greed drops to 11–23. Transition
Jan–Mar 2026 $64K–$94K ~0.5–0.8 (Suppressed) Accelerating bear market. VDD falls sharply as price collapses from $94K to $65K. LTH-SOPR at 0.6789 (deep loss territory). NUPL enters Fear zone (0.16–0.28). Fear & Greed hits 8 (Feb 24). Old coins are NOT moving — holders refuse to sell at these prices. Capitulation Onset
Apr–Jun 2026 $63K–$81K ~0.35–0.5 (Deeply Suppressed) Current phase. VDD at 0.3591 — 16th all-time percentile. CDD-90dma at 7.93M. Despite a brief recovery to $81K in May, VDD did not spike, confirming no meaningful LTH distribution. This is consistent with the "diamond hands" phase seen at 2018 and 2022 cycle lows. Accumulation / Bottom Zone
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