$63,752
Fear & Greed: 28 — Fear
Bitcoin is currently trading around $63,750 and has been stuck in a narrow range all week — it hasn't moved much up or down. Most people who own Bitcoin right now are sitting on small losses or tiny gains (the "fear" mood reading is near its lowest level in months), which is typical of a market that has been falling for a while and is now trying to find a floor. On the positive side, large long-term Bitcoin holders (people who have owned it for years) are still holding on and even buying a little more, which historically has been a sign that a recovery may be getting closer. However, big institutional investors (banks, funds, ETFs) have been pulling money out of Bitcoin products recently, and the broader financial world is nervous about rising oil prices and Middle East tensions — so the short-term picture is cautious, and a patient approach is wiser than rushing to buy or sell right now.
101.14, 10-year Treasury yields are at 4.55%, and fresh US-Iran military strikes are pushing oil higher and forcing the Fed to stay hawkish — a classic risk-off backdrop that historically suppresses Bitcoin.1.21 (19th historical percentile), NUPL at 0.176 (Fear zone, 19th percentile), and Reserve Risk at 0.0005 (2nd percentile) all point to historically cheap territory — not a top.-$1,543 BTC net outflow on July 9 (the latest data), with Q2 2026 marking the largest quarterly ETF outflow since launch — institutional capital is rotating toward AI equities, not Bitcoin.+2,942 BTC (buying), while STH net position change is -12,651 BTC (selling) — a classic late-bear divergence where patient money accumulates from panicking recent buyers.0%), a taker buy/sell ratio of 1.28 (buyers slightly dominant), and no extreme leverage — conditions favor a modest recovery attempt but the macro ceiling is real. Scaling in slowly is more prudent than aggressive buying or selling.Bitcoin's April 2024 halving placed us in Year 2 of the 4-year cycle. Historically, Year 2 post-halving has been the strongest bull year (2021, 2017). However, the current cycle has diverged — digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market (CoinDesk Research, July 10, 2026), suggesting the cycle has been extended or distorted by macro factors (AI capital rotation, geopolitical risk).
| Metric | Current Value | All-Time Percentile | Cycle Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV ↗ | 1.21 | 19th | Deep Value — Bull peaks: 3.5–4.0; Bear bottoms: ~0.8–1.0 |
| MVRV Z-Score | 0.374 | 28th | Accumulation Zone — Red zone (top): >7; Green zone (bottom): <0 |
| NUPL ↗ | 0.176 | 19th | Fear Zone — 0–0.25 = Fear; consistent with late-bear / early recovery |
| RHODL Ratio | 977.3 | — | Bullish — Older coins dominating; wealth in experienced hands |
| AVIV | 0.826 | 26th | Undervalued — All-time avg: 1.11; current below mean signals accumulation phase |
| Reserve Risk ↗ | 0.0005 | 2nd | Extreme Value — Historically, readings this low precede major bull runs |
| Asset | Level | 7-Day Trend | BTC Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 101.14 | Flat / slight uptick (100.85→101.14) | Mild headwind — DXY up = BTC pressure |
| Gold (ETF proxy) | $377.01 | Down from $382 — war-driven volatility | Neutral; BTC/Gold ratio ~170x |
| S&P 500 | 754.95 | Data as of July 10; weekend gap risk | High positive correlation (see below) |
| Nasdaq | 725.51 | Data as of July 10 | High positive correlation (see below) |
| VIX | 16.9 (Jul 8 peak) | Rose from 15.6 to 16.9 over the week | Mild risk-off signal; not extreme |
| 2-Year Yield | 4.21% | Rising (4.13%→4.21%) | Bearish — higher short rates = tighter liquidity |
| 10-Year Yield | 4.56% | Rising (4.48%→4.56%) | Bearish — higher long rates = risk-off |
| Yield Spread (10y–2y) | +0.35–0.38% | Slightly steepening | Neutral; curve not inverted |
| TLT | 84.47 | Falling (bonds selling off) | Bearish — bond stress = risk-off |
| Pair | 30-Day Corr | 90-Day Corr | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC vs DXY | -0.467 | -0.336 | Negative (normal) — BTC weakens when dollar strengthens. Moderate strength. |
| BTC vs Gold | +0.350 (Mar 18 data — stale) | +0.182 | Weak positive; BTC not acting as pure gold substitute |
| BTC vs S&P 500 | +0.678 (Mar 18 data — stale) | +0.541 | High positive — BTC trading AS a risk asset alongside equities |
| BTC vs Nasdaq | +0.669 (Mar 18 data — stale) | +0.550 | High positive — tech-equity correlation dominant |
| BTC vs TLT | -0.235 (Mar 18 data — stale) | +0.045 | Near-zero / slightly negative — bonds not a strong driver |
⚠️ Note: BTC-Gold, BTC-SP500, BTC-Nasdaq, and BTC-TLT correlation data is from March 18, 2026 — treat as directionally indicative, not current. Only BTC-DXY correlation has fresh July 2026 data.
Global M2 ↗ stands at $120.26 trillion (as of July 6, 2026) with a year-over-year change of +6.2%. This is a meaningful liquidity expansion — historically, M2 growth above 5% YoY has been a tailwind for risk assets including Bitcoin. This is one of the more constructive macro signals in the current environment.
The US launched its fourth round of strikes on Iran this week. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, pushing Brent crude up ~4% to above $79/barrel. Traditional markets (gold, equities, bonds) all sold off sharply. Bitcoin held near $63,800 — a notable relative strength signal. As CoinDesk noted (July 13, 2026): "Bitcoin's muted reaction marks a shift from past episodes of Middle East tension, with the token now moving more in line with dollar liquidity and the chip-driven equity cycle than with war headlines." This decoupling from geopolitical panic is a subtle bullish signal for BTC's maturation as an asset class.
| Metric | Value | Historical Context | 7-Day Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV ↗ | 1.21 |
19th percentile all-time (range: 0.40–443.98, avg: 2.26). Bull peaks: 3.5–4.0. Bear bottoms: ~0.8–1.0. Current = deep value. | Flat (1.217→1.213, -0.3%) | Bullish |
| NUPL ↗ | 0.176 |
19th percentile all-time (range: -1.53–1.00, avg: 0.37). Zone: Fear (0–0.25). Euphoria >0.75; Capitulation <0. | Flat (-1.4% over 7d) | Neutral |
| SOPR ↗ | 1.0002 |
36th percentile all-time (range: 0.64–4.52, avg: 1.02). Just above 1.0 = coins sold at breakeven. Sustained >1.0 = recovery signal. | Recovering (+0.2%, was 0.983 on Jul 10) | Neutral |
| Reserve Risk ↗ | 0.0005 |
2nd percentile all-time (range: 0.0004–1.00, avg: 0.0038). Extremely low = HODLers not selling despite low price. Historically precedes major bull runs. | Stable | Bullish |
| VDD Multiple | 0.42 |
21st percentile all-time (range: 0.07–4.46, avg: 1.06). <1.0 = below-average coin movement. Low = HODLing behavior, not distribution. | Stable | Bullish |
| Fear & Greed ↗ | 28 |
Fear zone (25–49). Range this week: 20–28. Extreme Fear (<25) hit on Jul 8 (score: 20). Historically, sustained Fear = buying opportunity. | Recovering from 20 to 28 (+16.7%) | Neutral |
| CDD-90dma ↗ | 8.37M |
Low reading. Elevated CDD = old coins moving (distribution risk). Current low level = long-dormant coins NOT moving = HODLing conviction. | Stable / low | Bullish |
| NRPL (USD) ↗ | +$7.72M |
Just turned positive after a week of losses (worst: -$872.82M on Jul 10). Net realized profit/loss: positive = holders selling at profit on net. LTH: +$118.94M (profit); STH: -$111.22M (loss). | Sharp recovery (+110.8%) | Neutral |
Funding Rate ↗: 0.00% (as of July 13, 10:00 UTC). A funding rate of exactly zero is neutral — neither longs nor shorts are paying a premium. This means the market is not crowded in either direction, reducing squeeze risk significantly.
Open Interest (Futures) ↗ (as of July 11, 2026):
| Exchange | OI (USD) |
|---|---|
| Binance | $9.13B |
| Bybit | $4.16B |
| Gate.io | $4.17B |
| OKX | $2.59B |
| Bitget | $2.63B |
| KuCoin | $2.01B |
| Deribit | $1.51B |
| Huobi | $2.08B |
| Others | ~$1.57B |
| Total (approx.) | ~$29.8B |
⚠️ Note: open-interest-1h data was unavailable — intraday OI trend cannot be assessed. The figures above are from July 11.
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Global Long/Short Ratio | 1.618 (Longs: 61.8%, Shorts: 38.2%) | Longs dominant — mild bullish lean but watch for squeeze if price drops |
| Top Trader Long/Short (Position) | 0.611 (Longs: 61.1%, Shorts: 38.9%) | Smart money also leaning long — constructive signal |
| Taker Buy/Sell Ratio | 1.278 (Buy: 3,597 BTC, Sell: 2,815 BTC) | Buyers are more aggressive — short-term bullish momentum |
Total liquidations: $12.67M — Long liquidations: $10.38M (82%), Short liquidations: $2.29M (18%). Longs were disproportionately liquidated, consistent with the Asian-session dip below $63,000 noted by CoinDesk. This is a "leverage flush" — it clears weak longs and can set up a healthier base for recovery.
The skew index is available via the on-chain risk index: skew index = 25.36, skew risk score = 17.95. The overall on-chain risk index is 22.67 (Low Risk zone). Dedicated options skew (put-call ratio, implied vol) data was not provided in the dataset — we cannot comment on specific options positioning beyond what the risk index implies.
| Date | Net Flow (BTC) | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 6 | +3,315 | Inflow |
| Jul 7 | +339 | Inflow |
| Jul 8 | -2,213 | Outflow |
| Jul 9 | -1,543 | Outflow |
| Jul 10–13 | Data pending | — |
ETF Flows ↗ | ETF BTC Holdings ↗
Total ETF BTC holdings: 565,036 BTC (as of July 9). This is down from ~568,453 BTC on July 6 — a net reduction of ~3,417 BTC over 3 days. The 7-day average flow is -25.5 BTC/day (marginally negative), but the trend within the week was sharply negative after Monday's inflow.
| Issuer | Jul 6 | Jul 7 | Jul 8 | Jul 9 | Jul 10 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBIT (BlackRock) | +$209M | +$55M | -$59M | $0 | $0 | Fading |
| ARKB (ARK/21Shares) | +$33M | -$8M | $0 | -$40M | +ARKB BTC | Mixed |
| GBTC (Grayscale) | -$45M | $0 | -$64M | $0 | $0 | Outflows |
| FBTC (Fidelity) | +$10M | -$25M | -$15M | -$63M | $0 | Outflows |
| BITB (Bitwise) | +$5M | $0 | $0 | $0 | +$11M | Neutral |
Key observation: IBIT (BlackRock) — the largest and most important ETF — saw strong inflows on July 6 ($209M) but went to zero by July 9–10. FBTC (Fidelity) had consistent outflows. GBTC continues to bleed. ARKB is mixed. No single issuer is driving sustained accumulation.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds 843,775 BTC — unchanged throughout the week, suggesting no new purchases. MSTR stock fell from $100.77 (Jul 6) to $94.64 (Jul 10), a -6.1% decline. The 10x Research report (July 13) notes Strategy's mNAV (market-to-NAV ratio) has slipped back to parity, and "a growing list of Bitcoin treasury companies are becoming net sellers rather than buyers." Other notable holders: XXI (43,514 BTC), Metaplanet (43,000 BTC), MARA (35,303 BTC) — all unchanged this week.
Coinbase price: $63,849.68 vs Binance: $63,780 → Coinbase Premium Index: +0.109%. A positive Coinbase premium indicates US institutional/retail demand is slightly leading offshore markets. This is a mild bullish signal for US-based demand.
| Metric | Value | Context | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hashrate ↗ | 909.98 EH/s |
7-day range: 784–931 EH/s. Up +16% over the week. Near 7-day high. Strong network security. | Bullish |
| Puell Multiple ↗ | 0.717 |
Below 1.0 = miner revenue below annual average. Green zone (<0.5) = extreme miner stress. Current = moderate stress but not capitulation. VanEck noted May miner revenue fell -26% YoY to ~$1.12B. | Neutral |
| Miner Balances | 726,338 BTC |
⚠️ Data is stale — from October 27, 2025. Cannot assess current miner selling pressure from this figure. Weight accordingly. | Stale Data |
| Hash Ribbons Signal | Down |
30-day hashrate SMA (940M) > 60-day SMA (947M) — hashrate is in a minor downtrend by this measure, suggesting some miner stress. Not yet a "buy" signal from hash ribbons. | Neutral |
The Bitcoin Macro Index shows hashrate SMA-30 at 940M vs SMA-60 at 947M — the hash ribbons signal is currently "Down" (SMA-30 below SMA-60), indicating miners are under some pressure. However, the raw hashrate of 909 EH/s is near all-time highs, suggesting the network remains healthy. VanEck (July 10) noted miners are diversifying into AI/HPC to offset lower Bitcoin revenue. Miner selling pressure is moderate but not extreme.
| Metric | LTH (Long-Term Holders) | STH (Short-Term Holders) | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV | 1.29 — in profit |
0.93 — in loss |
LTHs above cost basis; STHs underwater. Classic late-bear pattern. |
| NUPL | 0.226 — Fear/Hope border |
-0.077 — Capitulation zone |
STHs are capitulating (selling at loss). LTHs holding with thin profit. |
| SOPR | 1.352 — selling at 35% profit |
0.997 — selling near breakeven/loss |
LTHs taking some profit; STHs panic-selling. Distribution from weak to strong hands. |
| NRPL (USD) | +$118.94M — net profit |
-$111.22M — net loss |
STH losses nearly offset LTH profits. Net NRPL barely positive at +$7.72M. |
| Net Position Change | +2,942 BTC — accumulating |
-12,651 BTC — distributing |
LTHs net buyers; STHs net sellers. Strong hands absorbing weak-hand supply. |
Overall NUPL at 0.176 = Fear zone (0–0.25). The Block (July 9) reports Bitcoin has spent five straight months below its True Market Mean and STH Cost Basis — one of the longest deep-value stretches in its history. Long-term holder loss realization peaked at $280M/day (highest since December 2022), though our current data shows LTH-SOPR at 1.352 (selling at profit), suggesting this stress may be easing.
CDD-90dma ↗: 8.37M — low reading. Long-dormant coins are NOT moving. This is a strong HODLing conviction signal — experienced holders are not capitulating.
Exchange Reserve ↗: 2.76M BTC on exchanges (July 12).
| Date | Netflow (BTC) | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 6 | -34.5 | Outflow (bullish) |
| Jul 7 | +6,554 | Large inflow (bearish — selling pressure) |
| Jul 8 | -829 | Outflow (bullish) |
| Jul 9 | +660 | Inflow (mild bearish) |
| Jul 10 | -3,108 | Large outflow (bullish) |
| Jul 11 | -561 | Outflow (bullish) |
| Jul 12 | +405 | Mild inflow |
The 7-day average netflow is +441 BTC/day (marginally net inflow), but this is heavily skewed by the July 7 spike (+6,554 BTC). Excluding that outlier, the trend is net outflow — coins moving off exchanges (bullish, reducing sell-side supply). The large July 10 outflow (-3,108 BTC) is particularly constructive.
| Metric | Current (Jul 2026) | 2020–2021 Bull Peak | 2022–2023 Bear Bottom | Where Are We? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV | 1.21 (19th pctile) |
3.5–4.0 (peak) | 0.8–1.0 (bottom) | Just above bear-bottom range — deep value |
| MVRV Z-Score | 0.374 (28th pctile) |
7–9 (peak) | -0.5 to 0 (bottom) | Near bear-bottom zone — not a top |
| NUPL | 0.176 (19th pctile) |
0.7–0.9 (Euphoria) | -0.3 to 0 (Capitulation) | Fear zone — similar to mid-2022 recovery attempts |
| Reserve Risk | 0.0005 (2nd pctile) |
0.003–0.01 (peak) | 0.0004–0.0006 (bottom) | At bear-bottom levels — historically excellent entry |
| VDD Multiple | 0.42 (21st pctile) |
2.0–4.5 (peak) | 0.1–0.5 (bottom) | Bear-bottom range — HODLing behavior |
| AVIV | 0.826 (26th pctile) |
2.0–3.0 (peak) | 0.2–0.6 (bottom) | Recovering from bottom — early accumulation |
| Fear & Greed | 28 (Fear) |
75–95 (Extreme Greed) | 5–20 (Extreme Fear) | Fear — similar to mid-2022 and late-2023 recovery setups |
| Puell Multiple |