Bitcoin On-Chain Analyst Report — 2026-07-24

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₿ BGeometrics On-Chain Analyst Report

📅 Report Date: Friday, July 24, 2026 🔭 Analysis Scope: 90 Days 🎯 Focus: Long-Term Holder (LTH) Behavior

BTC $65,094

🗣️ TL;DR — Plain-Language Summary

Bitcoin is currently trading around $65,000, sitting roughly 16% below its peak of about $82,000 reached earlier this spring — it has been sliding and then stabilising over the past three months. The most important story right now is what the long-term holders (people who have owned Bitcoin for more than 155 days and have historically been the "smart money") are doing: they are actually buying more, adding nearly 20,000 BTC net in the most recent reading, even though they are currently sitting on small losses on coins they have recently moved. Meanwhile, the broader market mood is fearful — the Fear & Greed Index (a sentiment gauge from 0 = extreme fear to 100 = extreme greed) sits at just 28 (Fear) — and a potential surprise interest-rate hike by the US Federal Reserve next week is adding uncertainty. For everyday investors, the key takeaway is: long-term Bitcoin veterans are quietly accumulating during this fear-driven dip, which has historically been a constructive sign, but a macro shock from the Fed could push prices lower before any recovery.

1. Executive Summary

LTHs are accumulating, not distributing: LTH Net Position Change ↗ shows +19,643 BTC added in the latest reading, and the 30-day cumulative figure stands at +198,517 BTC — a powerful conviction signal amid the price decline.
Market is in the "Fear" zone: NUPL ↗ at 0.1948 (Fear zone, 0.25–0.5 = Hope), Fear & Greed ↗ at 28 — historically a zone where patient buyers are rewarded.
Critical macro risk: The bond market is pricing in a surprise Fed rate hike at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting; the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.71% and the 2-month yield spiked 13 bps to 3.95%, creating a significant near-term headwind for all risk assets including BTC.
ETF flows have just turned positive: After months of outflows, Bitcoin ETFs posted five consecutive days of inflows (week of July 14–21), the first such streak since April, pulling total ETF assets back toward ~$79 billion — a tentative but meaningful institutional re-engagement signal.
Cycle position is mid-bear recovery, not euphoria: At 56.6% through the 4-year halving cycle (825 days post-April 2024 halving), most on-chain metrics sit in the 21st–31st all-time percentile — deeply below bull-market levels, consistent with a late-bear / early-recovery phase.

Overall Verdict: Bitcoin is in a late-stage bear / early accumulation phase, with LTH behavior strongly constructive but macro headwinds (potential rate hike, AI equity selloff) creating near-term volatility risk. Confidence: Medium — LTH signals are clear, but the FOMC outcome (July 28–29) is a binary macro event that could materially shift the short-term picture.

2. Market Cycle Position

Halving Cycle: We are 825 days past the April 2024 halving, approximately 56.6% through the 4-year cycle, with the next halving estimated around April 2028 (~633 days away). Historically, this mid-cycle window (months 18–30 post-halving) has been characterised by consolidation and accumulation before the final bull-market leg.

Metric	Current Value	All-Time Percentile	Cycle Signal
MVRV ↗	`1.2419`	21st percentile	Neutral–Bearish — Below all-time avg of 2.26; bull peaks reach 3.5–4.0+
NUPL ↗	`0.1948`	21st percentile	Fear Zone — Range: <0 Capitulation \| 0–0.25 Fear \| 0.25–0.5 Hope \| 0.5–0.75 Optimism \| >0.75 Euphoria
RHODL	`710.56` (1m: 963.73)	—	Bullish — Low relative to bull peaks (10,000+); accumulation territory
AVIV	`0.8451`	29th percentile	Neutral — Below all-time avg of 1.11; bull peaks exceed 2.0

Cycle Verdict: All four cycle metrics (MVRV, NUPL, RHODL, AVIV) are in the bottom quartile of their all-time distributions. This is consistent with a late-bear / early-recovery accumulation phase — not a bull-market top. The 90-day trend shows MVRV declined from 1.45 to 1.24 (–14.2%), confirming the spring correction was significant. However, the past 3 weeks show a modest recovery from the June 30 trough of 1.11.

3. Macro & Cross-Asset Context

Traditional Market Snapshot (July 23–24, 2026)

Asset	Level	Context
DXY	`101.38`	Moderate; below 2022 highs (~115). Mildly dollar-strong environment.
Gold	`$371.52`	Elevated; benefiting from rate-hike uncertainty and safe-haven demand.
S&P 500	`738.18`	Down ~1.2% on July 23 after Mag-7 AI spending fears; 11% off late-May peak.
Nasdaq	`691.96`	Down ~1.9% on July 23; worst Mag-7 day since April 2025 tariff selloff.
VIX	Not provided	Data unavailable — lower confidence on equity vol regime.
10-Year Treasury Yield	`4.71%`	Rising; 20-year at 5.20%, 30-year at 5.17% — near multi-year highs. Significant tightening signal.
2-Year Treasury Yield	~3.95% (2-month proxy)	Spiked 13 bps on July 24 — bond market pricing in a surprise 25 bps rate hike at July 28–29 FOMC.
TLT	`83.17`	Depressed; long bonds under pressure from rising yields.
Strategy (MSTR)	`$93.63`	Significantly below peak; BTC proxy equity under pressure.
Global M2	`$120,841.55B`	YoY change: `+6.6%` — expanding liquidity backdrop, historically supportive for BTC over 6–12 month horizon.

BTC Correlations

⚠️ Note: BTC-Gold, BTC-SP500, BTC-Nasdaq, and BTC-TLT correlation data is dated March 18, 2026 — approximately 4 months stale. These figures should be treated as directional context only, not current readings.

Pair	30-Day Corr	90-Day Corr	Interpretation
BTC vs DXY	`–0.45`	`–0.35`	Normal — Negative correlation is expected; dollar strength = BTC headwind. Current data (July 23).
BTC vs Gold	`+0.35`	`+0.18`	Stale (Mar 18) — Mild positive; BTC partially tracking safe-haven narrative.
BTC vs S&P 500	`+0.68`	`+0.54`	Stale (Mar 18) — High positive; BTC trading as a risk asset. However, July 24 price action (BTC flat while Mag-7 fell 4.8%) hints at possible near-term decoupling.
BTC vs Nasdaq	`+0.67`	`+0.55`	Stale (Mar 18) — Similar to SP500 correlation; BTC closely tracking tech.
BTC vs TLT	`–0.23`	`+0.05`	Stale (Mar 18) — Near-zero 90d; BTC not reliably tracking bond duration.

Risk-On / Risk-Off Verdict

🔴 Risk-Off / Tightening Environment: Rising long-end yields (10Y at 4.71%, 30Y at 5.17%), a bond market pricing in a surprise rate hike, and a sharp Mag-7 equity selloff all signal a risk-off, tightening backdrop. The DXY at 101.38 is mildly dollar-positive. Global M2 growing at +6.6% YoY provides a medium-term liquidity tailwind, but near-term macro is clearly a headwind. BTC's resilience on July 24 (flat while equities fell sharply) is a tentative decoupling signal, but with stale correlation data, this cannot be confirmed with high confidence.

4. On-Chain Signals Table

All values as of July 23, 2026 unless noted. Historical thresholds from all-time data.

Metric	Value	Historical Context	Signal
MVRV ↗	`1.2419`	21st all-time percentile. All-time avg: 2.26. Bull peaks: 3.5–4.0+. Bear bottoms: <1.0. Currently 14.2% below 90-day start.	Neutral
NUPL ↗	`0.1948`	21st all-time percentile. Fear zone (0–0.25). Euphoria >0.75. Capitulation <0. Down 37% over 90 days from 0.31.	Neutral
SOPR ↗	`0.9977`	25th all-time percentile. Below 1.0 = coins being sold at a loss on average. Neutral zone (0.99–1.01). 90-day avg: 0.9956.	Neutral
Reserve Risk ↗	`0.0005`	2nd all-time percentile — Extremely low. All-time range: 0.0004–1.0. Buy zone is typically <0.002. This is a strong LTH conviction signal.	Bullish
VDD Multiple	`0.4557`	24th all-time percentile. All-time avg: 1.06. Values <1 indicate below-average coin-day destruction — HODLing behaviour dominant.	Bullish
Fear & Greed ↗	`28` (Fear)	90-day avg: 25.6. Range over 90d: 8–50. Currently in "Fear" (25–49). Extreme Fear (<25) seen as recently as June 9 (score: 10). Recovering from extreme lows.	Neutral
CDD-90dma ↗	`7.90M`	Low absolute level. Elevated CDD signals dormant coins moving (distribution). Current low reading = LTHs are NOT selling en masse; HODLing behaviour confirmed.	Bullish
NRPL (USD) ↗	`–$139.83M`	Negative = net losses being realised. 90-day avg: –$273.77M. 90-day range: –$2.11B to +$1.12B. Currently at 61st percentile of 90-day range — improving from June lows of –$1.91B.	Neutral

5. Derivatives & Options Positioning

Futures & Perpetuals

Metric	Value	Interpretation
Funding Rate ↗	`+0.0001` (July 24, 10:00 UTC)	Near-zero positive. Neutral — no crowded long or short extreme. Mark price: $65,470. Low squeeze risk from funding alone.
Open Interest (OI) ↗	Total: ~`$31.5B` (July 22)	Binance $9.51B \| Bybit $4.40B \| Gate.io $4.59B \| OKX $2.80B \| Bitget $2.78B \| Huobi $2.17B \| KuCoin $2.08B \| Deribit $1.51B \| Crypto.com $756M \| Bitfinex $590M \| Kraken $151M \| BitMEX $145M. Substantial OI; 1-hour OI data unavailable.
Futures Basis	Not directly provided	Near-zero funding rate implies near-flat basis — no strong contango premium or backwardation stress.
Daily Liquidations (July 23)	Total: `$14.90M`	Longs: `$11.87M` \| Shorts: `$3.03M`. Long liquidations dominate (~80% of total) — modest but lopsided. Suggests residual long overhang.
Global Long/Short Ratio (July 24, 13:00 UTC)	Longs: `60.55%` \| Shorts: `39.45%` \| Ratio: `1.5349`	Moderately long-biased. Ratio >1 = more accounts are long. Not extreme, but longs outnumber shorts ~3:2.
Top-Trader Long/Short (Position, July 24, 13:00 UTC)	Long position: `61.16%` \| Short: `38.84%` \| Ratio: `0.6116`	Note: ratio reported as position share (0.61), not a >1 ratio. Top traders are net long by position weight — broadly aligned with retail.
Taker Buy/Sell Ratio (July 24, 12:00 UTC)	`1.0215` (Buy: 1,680 \| Sell: 1,645)	Marginally above 1.0 — slight buy-side dominance in recent taker flow. Constructive but not aggressive.

Options (from On-Chain Risk Index)

The Skew Index is 10.014 with a Skew Risk Score of 2 (low risk). VanEck's mid-July ChainCheck noted a put/call IV skew of +11.4 percentage points and perp funding of +4.5% — ranges historically preceding below-average returns. However, the current funding rate of +0.0001 is far below that +4.5% level, suggesting conditions have normalised since that report.

Derivatives Verdict: Positioning is mildly long-biased but not crowded. Near-zero funding rate, modest OI, and a taker buy/sell ratio just above 1.0 suggest the market is not overleveraged. Long liquidations slightly dominating ($11.87M vs $3.03M short) indicates residual long overhang. The next key event — FOMC July 28–29 — could trigger a short-squeeze if the rate hike is already priced in, or a long flush if the hike surprises to the upside. 1-hour OI data was unavailable — this limits intraday squeeze-risk assessment.

6. Institutional Flows

ETF Flows

ETF Daily Flow ↗: Latest reading (July 21): +2,962 BTC net inflow — the most recent of five consecutive positive days (first such streak since late April), per CoinDesk reporting. The five-day run pulled in roughly $727 million, lifting total ETF assets back toward ~$79 billion from a July low near $75 billion.

ETF BTC Holdings ↗: Total ETF BTC holdings as of July 21: 571,843 BTC. This is a substantial institutional custody base.

90-Day ETF Flow Context

The 90-day ETF flow picture is dominated by outflows: the 90-day average is –2,005 BTC/day. The worst single reading was June 25 at –11,708 BTC. The current reading of +2,962 BTC sits at the 75th percentile of the 90-day range — a meaningful reversal. The trend over the past 3 weeks (July 6–21) has been decisively positive after months of outflows.

🟢 ETF Flow Trend Turning: After the worst outflow period since ETF launch (May–June 2026), institutional flows have reversed. The five-day inflow streak is the strongest signal of institutional re-engagement since April.

Per-Issuer Holdings

Per-issuer breakdown data is not available in the current dataset. CoinDesk reporting notes BlackRock's ETHA (Ethereum ETF) drove the ether side; for BTC ETFs, IBIT (BlackRock), FBTC (Fidelity), and GBTC (Grayscale) are the dominant issuers historically but specific current per-issuer BTC flow data is not provided — lower confidence on issuer attribution.

Corporate Treasuries & MSTR Ecosystem

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, ticker MSTR) is trading at $93.63. CoinDesk reports Strategy raised cash reserves to $3.2 billion while leaving Bitcoin holdings unchanged — a defensive posture. The Smarter Web Company sold 178 BTC (~$11.7M) to repay a convertible instrument, citing convertibles as "not currently the right capital solution" — a sign of stress in the leveraged BTC treasury model at current prices.

Coinbase Premium

Coinbase Premium Index: –0.1075 (July 23). Coinbase price: $65,029 vs Binance: $65,099. The negative premium indicates offshore/global demand is marginally leading US institutional spot demand. This is a mild bearish signal for US institutional buying momentum — though the magnitude is small.

Institutional Verdict: Institutions are tentatively re-accumulating via ETFs after a prolonged outflow period, but the Coinbase premium is slightly negative and MSTR is in a defensive cash-preservation mode. The ETF inflow streak is encouraging but needs to sustain through the FOMC event to confirm a trend change.

7. Mining & Network Health

Metric	Value	Context & Signal
Hashrate ↗	`852.58 EH/s`	Down 10.9% over 90 days from ~957 EH/s. 90-day range: 739–1,140 EH/s; currently at 28th percentile. VanEck notes hash price compressed to ~$30.6/PH/s/day. Hashrate decline may reflect miner capitulation / rig shutdowns at low prices.
Puell Multiple ↗	`0.6833`	Below 1.0 — miners earning less than their annual average. Historical buy zone: <0.5. Not yet at extreme stress, but approaching it. Miner economics are near multi-year lows per VanEck.
Miner Balances	`726,338 BTC`	⚠️ Data dated October 27, 2025 — approximately 9 months stale. Do not use for current trend analysis. Treat as background context only.
Hash Ribbons Signal	`Down`	Hash Ribbons signal is currently "Down" — the 30-day hashrate SMA ($921.80M) is above the 60-day SMA ($931.40M), indicating the short-term average has not yet crossed above the long-term average. No miner capitulation recovery signal yet.

Mining Verdict: Miner economics are under pressure (Puell Multiple 0.68, hashrate declining, Hash Ribbons "Down"). Lower-efficiency miners are at or below breakeven per VanEck. This creates modest selling pressure risk from miners liquidating BTC to cover costs. However, the Puell Multiple is not yet in the extreme buy zone (<0.5), and miner balance data is too stale to assess current selling behaviour with confidence.

8. Holder Behavior — 🎯 LTH Focus

🎯 Report Focus: This is the core section. Long-Term Holders (LTHs — coins unmoved for >155 days) are the most important signal group in the current market. Their behaviour is overwhelmingly constructive.

LTH vs STH MVRV

Metric	Value	Interpretation
LTH-MVRV	`1.32`	LTHs are in aggregate profit (cost basis below current price). Ratio of 1.32 means LTHs are up ~32% on average. Not yet at the 2.0–3.0+ levels that historically trigger mass LTH distribution.
STH-MVRV	`0.96`	Short-Term Holders are in aggregate loss (cost basis above current price). STH-MVRV <1 is a classic bear-market / accumulation-phase signal. STHs who bought in the past 5 months are underwater.

LTH vs STH SOPR

Metric	Value	Interpretation
LTH-SOPR	`0.8664`	LTHs are selling at a loss on coins they are moving. LTH-SOPR <1 is historically rare and significant — it means even long-term holders who move coins are realising losses. This is a classic late-bear capitulation signal. Historically, sustained LTH-SOPR <1 has marked major cycle bottoms (e.g., late 2022).
STH-SOPR	`0.9983`	STHs are selling near breakeven — essentially flat. Not a strong signal in isolation, but consistent with a market where recent buyers are not panicking (they're holding, not dumping at large losses).

LTH vs STH NUPL

Metric	Value	Zone	Interpretation
LTH-NUPL	`0.2414`	Hope/Fear Border	LTHs are in aggregate unrealised profit, but barely in the "Hope" zone (0.25–0.5). This is not a distribution signal — LTHs are not sitting on the large unrealised gains that historically trigger selling (Optimism >0.5, Euphoria >0.75).
STH-NUPL	`–0.0459`	Capitulation	STHs are in aggregate unrealised loss. STH-NUPL <0 = capitulation zone for recent buyers. This is the cohort most likely to sell in panic — their continued holding (low STH-SOPR) despite being underwater is a constructive sign.

LTH vs STH NRPL

Metric	Value	Interpretation
LTH-NRPL (USD)	`–$38.52M`	LTHs are realising net losses on coins they move. This is a late-bear signal — LTHs who do sell are doing so at a loss, suggesting forced selling or tax-loss harvesting rather than profit-taking. The magnitude is relatively small.
STH-NRPL (USD)	`–$101.31M`	STHs are realising larger net losses than LTHs. The bulk of current selling pressure comes from short-term holders capitulating — not LTHs distributing. Total NRPL: –$139.83M, of which 72% is STH-driven.

LTH Net Position Change — The Headline Signal

🟢 LTHs Are Accumulating Aggressively:

Daily LTH Net Position Change: +19,643 BTC (July 23) — LTHs added nearly 20,000 BTC net in a single day.
30-Day LTH Net Position Change: +198,517 BTC — nearly 200,000 BTC accumulated by LTHs over the past month.
STH Net Position Change: –9,859 BTC (July 23) — STHs are net sellers, providing the coins LTHs are absorbing.
This classic "wealth transfer" from weak hands (STHs) to strong hands (LTHs) is one of the most reliable late-bear accumulation signals in Bitcoin's history.

CDD-90dma & Reserve Risk

CDD-90dma ↗ at 7.90M is low — dormant coins are NOT being moved in large quantities. This confirms LTHs are holding, not distributing. Combined with Reserve Risk ↗ at 0.0005 (2nd all-time percentile — the lowest it has ever been relative to history), the message is unambiguous: LTHs have extremely high conviction and are not selling.

NUPL Zone

Overall NUPL: 0.1948 — Fear Zone (0–0.25). The market is in the Fear zone, which historically has been a zone of opportunity for patient investors, not a distribution zone. The 90-day trend shows NUPL declined from 0.31 (Hope) to 0.10 (near Capitulation border) in June, and has since recovered to 0.19 — a tentative recovery within the Fear zone.

LTH Behavior Verdict: The LTH signal suite is overwhelmingly constructive. LTHs are: (1) accumulating at a 30-day rate of +198,517 BTC; (2) not moving dormant coins (low CDD); (3) showing extreme conviction (Reserve Risk at 2nd all-time percentile); (4) only modestly in profit (LTH-MVRV 1.32, LTH-NUPL 0.24) — far from the levels that trigger distribution. The only cautionary note is LTH-SOPR at 0.87, meaning the small fraction of LTHs who ARE selling are doing so at a loss — a late-bear capitulation signal that historically marks proximity to cycle bottoms.

9. Exchange Flows

Metric	Value	Context
Exchange Reserve (BTC) ↗	`2.77M BTC`	Total BTC held on exchanges. Declining exchange reserves over time = bullish (coins moving to cold storage). Absolute level context requires longer-term data.
Exchange Net Flow (July 23)	`+3,091 BTC` (net inflow)	Positive = more BTC flowing onto exchanges than off. This is a mild bearish signal — coins moving to exchanges can indicate selling intent. 90-day avg: +1,017 BTC/day (net inflows have been the norm).

90-Day Exchange Flow Pattern

The 90-day exchange netflow data shows a mixed picture. Large outflows (smart money withdrawing) occurred on April 25 (–6,858 BTC) and June 15 (–4,684 BTC). Large inflows (potential selling pressure) occurred on May 22 (+5,138 BTC) and May 28 (+4,484 BTC) — coinciding with the price decline from ~$82K to ~$73K. The current reading of +3,091 BTC is at the 59th percentile of the 90-day range, suggesting moderate inflow pressure. The 90-day average of +1,017 BTC/day indicates a persistent, mild net-inflow trend — consistent with the ongoing price weakness.

Exchange Flow Verdict: Net inflows to exchanges are a mild headwind — coins are moving toward exchanges at a modest pace. However, this is not a panic-selling signal; the magnitude is small relative to the exchange reserve of 2.77M BTC. The LTH accumulation data (Section 8) suggests the coins flowing to exchanges are primarily from STHs, not LTHs.

10. Historical Cycle Comparison

Metric	Current (Jul 2026)	2020–21 Bull Market	2022–23 Bear Market	Cycle Context
MVRV	`1.24` (21st pct)	Peak: ~4.0–5.0 (Nov 2021)	Trough: ~0.70–0.80 (Nov 2022)	Well below bull peak; above bear trough. Mid-recovery territory.
NUPL	`0.1948` (21st pct)	Peak: ~0.75–0.80 (Euphoria)	Trough: ~–0.20 to –0.40 (Capitulation)	Fear zone — consistent with 2019-style mid-cycle consolidation or late-2022 recovery phase.
Reserve Risk	`0.0005` (2nd pct)	Bull peak: ~0.01–0.05	Bear trough: ~0.0004–0.001	At all-time l Generate your own AI report →