$64,827.57
Realized Price: $52,449.96
Dominance: 56.53%
Bitcoin is trading around $64,828 — roughly 48% below its all-time high of ~$124,800 and stuck in a prolonged sideways-to-down grind that began after the peak in mid-2025. The market is being driven by a split between two types of investors: long-term holders (people who have owned Bitcoin for more than five months — LTHs) who are quietly accumulating more coins even while sitting on paper losses, and short-term holders (recent buyers — STHs) who are underwater and selling at a loss. The overall "mood" of the market, measured by a Fear & Greed index (a 0–100 score of investor sentiment — F&G), sits at just 25 (Fear), meaning most people are nervous. For patient investors, history suggests these fear-driven, accumulation-heavy periods often precede recoveries — but the macro backdrop (rising inflation, a cautious central bank) means there is no obvious near-term catalyst to push prices sharply higher.
16.82M BTC, yet their LTH-SOPR at 0.9051 shows they are realizing losses when they do sell — a classic late-bear capitulation signal. STHs are also underwater (STH-MVRV 0.95) but marginally profitable on recent transactions (STH-SOPR 1.0018), suggesting the two cohorts are diverging: LTHs absorb supply while STHs cautiously transact near breakeven.1.2348 (20th all-time percentile), NUPL at 0.1901 (Fear zone, 21st all-time percentile), and Reserve Risk at 0.0005 (2nd all-time percentile) all point to deeply undervalued territory relative to history.-859.9 BTC. This is a meaningful headwind.100.13 is neutral-to-firm; BTC's 30-day correlation to DXY is -0.343 (mild inverse). Inflation re-acceleration is a structural headwind for risk assets.+0.0001), short liquidations dominated yesterday ($7.87M vs $1.87M longs), and the global long/short ratio at 1.647 suggests longs are in control but not crowded — a squeeze-neutral environment.We are approximately 57% through the 4-year halving cycle (832 days since the April 2024 halving). Historically, this phase can still see further drawdowns before the next leg up, but the on-chain setup is increasingly constructive for patient accumulators.
This section provides a dedicated deep-dive into the divergence between Long-Term Holders (LTH) and Short-Term Holders (STH) across the full 4-year window (August 2022 – July 2026), covering four major market phases.
Both cohorts were deeply underwater. LTH-MVRV fell to 0.828 (Dec 2022) and LTH-NUPL hit -0.218 — deep Capitulation territory. STH-MVRV was similarly depressed at 0.807–0.930. NRPL-LTH was consistently negative (e.g., -$149M in Aug 2022, -$137M in Dec 2022), as was NRPL-STH (-$52M to -$76M). LTH supply was rising throughout — from 14.86M BTC (Aug 2022) to 15.36M BTC (Nov 2022) — meaning long-term holders were accumulating aggressively even at a loss, a classic capitulation-bottom signal. STH supply was falling (4.25M → 3.84M BTC), confirming weak-hand exit.
This phase saw the two cohorts diverge sharply in profitability. LTH-MVRV climbed from 1.086 (Feb 2023) to a peak of 3.884 (Mar 2024) and 3.861 (Dec 2024), placing LTHs in deep Euphoria (NUPL-LTH peaked at 0.7435 in Feb 2025). NRPL-LTH surged to +$934M (Mar 2024) and +$1.69B (Nov 2024) — LTHs were realizing massive profits. Meanwhile, STH-MVRV oscillated between 1.02–1.38, rarely exceeding Hope/Optimism zone, and NRPL-STH peaked at +$1.17B (Nov 2024) as new buyers rode the rally. Crucially, LTH supply fell from 16.26M BTC (Dec 2023) to 14.49M BTC (Dec 2024) — LTHs were distributing into strength, selling to new STH entrants. STH supply rose from 3.30M to 5.32M BTC over the same period, confirming the supply transfer.
As BTC fell from ~$117K (Jul 2025) to ~$58K (Jun 2026 low), the cohort dynamics reversed again. LTH-MVRV declined from 3.861 → 1.30 (Jun 2026). LTH-SOPR collapsed from ~2.4 (peak bull) to 0.7957 (Jun 2026) — LTHs selling at a loss for the first time since the 2022 bear. NRPL-LTH turned negative in early 2026: -$511M (Feb 2026), -$367M (Jul 2026). STH-NUPL fell to -0.213 (Mar 2026) — STHs in Capitulation. NRPL-STH hit a staggering -$4.63B (Feb 2026), the worst realized loss in the dataset, as recent buyers panic-sold. LTH supply began recovering: 14.05M (Dec 2025) → 16.82M BTC (Jul 2026) — a +1.77M BTC accumulation in 7 months, the strongest re-accumulation signal in the dataset.
| Metric | LTH Value | LTH Zone | STH Value | STH Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV | 1.31 | Neutral | 0.95 | Bearish (below cost) |
| SOPR | 0.9051 | Selling at loss | 1.0018 | Marginal profit |
| NUPL | 0.2371 | Hope/Accumulation | -0.051 | Fear/Capitulation |
| NRPL (USD) | -$180.77M | Net Loss | +$117.20M | Net Profit |
| Supply (BTC) | 16.82M ↑ | Accumulating | 3.25M ↓ | Declining |
| 30d Net Position Change | +166,884 BTC | Buying | -140,228 BTC | Selling/Aging out |
The supply data tells a clear story of three distinct phases over 4 years:
We are 832 days post-halving (April 2024 halving), approximately 57.1% through the 4-year cycle, with ~626 days to the next halving (~April 2028). Historically, this phase (months 27–30 post-halving) can still see choppy, range-bound price action before the next major bull leg.
| Metric | Current Value | All-Time Percentile | Cycle Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV ↗ | 1.2348 |
20th percentile (range: 0.396–443.98, avg: 2.25) | Neutral — cheap but not capitulation |
| MVRV Z-Score ↗ | 0.3833 |
29th percentile (range: -0.687–32.96, avg: 1.47) | Bullish — well below danger zone (>7) |
| NUPL ↗ | 0.1901 |
21st percentile (range: -1.53–1.00, avg: 0.37) | Fear zone (0–0.25) — historically early recovery |
| RHODL Ratio | 842.61 (1m: 911.90) |
N/A (contextual) | Neutral — declining from 2024 peaks |
| AVIV | 0.84 |
28th percentile (range: 0–3.09, avg: 1.11) | Bullish — below fair value (1.0) |
| Reserve Risk ↗ | 0.0005 |
2nd percentile (range: 0.0004–1.00, avg: 0.0038) | Strongly Bullish — extreme HODLer conviction vs price |
$64,828 is 45% of the way through its 4-year range ($15,758–$124,824), suggesting we are not at a generational low — the 2022 bottom was far more extreme.
| Asset / Metric | Current Level | BTC Correlation (30d / 90d) | Signal for BTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 100.13 |
-0.343 / -0.353 |
Neutral — DXY near 100, mild inverse correlation (normal) |
| Gold | $377.16 (index) |
+0.350 / +0.182 (data: Mar 2026) |
Mild positive — BTC partially tracking gold as inflation hedge |
| S&P 500 | 741.69 (index) |
+0.678 / +0.541 (data: Mar 2026) |
High positive — BTC trading as risk asset with equities |
| Nasdaq | 683.55 (index) |
+0.669 / +0.550 (data: Mar 2026) |
High positive — tech-correlated behavior |
| TLT (Long-Term Bonds) | 82.80 |
-0.235 / +0.045 (data: Mar 2026) |
Neutral — near-zero 90d correlation; bonds not driving BTC |
| VIX (Volatility Index) | Not in latest data | N/A | Data unavailable |
| MSTR / Strategy | $97.74 |
N/A | Bearish proxy — well off highs, stress in BTC treasury model |
| Global M2 | $121,056.77B |
YoY change: +5.93% |
Bullish — expanding liquidity historically supportive for BTC |
Note on correlation data: BTC-Gold, BTC-SP500, BTC-Nasdaq, and BTC-TLT correlations are dated March 18, 2026 — treat as stale (4+ months old). The DXY correlation is current (July 30, 2026) at -0.343 (30d) / -0.353 (90d), confirming the normal inverse BTC-dollar relationship. The high BTC-equity correlations from March 2026 (+0.68 to S&P, +0.67 to Nasdaq) suggest BTC was trading as a risk asset — this likely remains directionally true given the current macro environment, but the exact numbers should be treated with caution.
Global M2 at $121.06T (+5.93% YoY) is a medium-term tailwind — historically, BTC price tends to lag M2 expansion by 3–6 months. However, the inflationary nature of this expansion (GDP deflator +6.3% Q2 2026) complicates the picture: the Fed cannot easily cut rates to add further stimulus, limiting the liquidity impulse. See: Global M2 ↗
Stablecoin supply (USDT: $183.9B, USDC: $72.1B, total ~$260B+) represents significant dry powder that could re-enter crypto markets. This is a latent bullish catalyst if sentiment shifts.
| Metric | Value | Historical Context | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV ↗ | 1.2348 |
20th all-time percentile. 4yr range: 0.756–2.776, avg 1.716. Tops historically at 3.5–4.0+; bottoms near 0.75–0.85. Currently 24% of 4yr range. | Bullish |
| NUPL ↗ | 0.1901 |
21st all-time percentile. Fear zone (0–0.25). Euphoria >0.75; Capitulation <0. 4yr avg: 0.356. Currently 53% of 4yr range. | Neutral |
| SOPR ↗ | 0.9991 |
31st all-time percentile. Below 1.0 = coins sold at a loss on average. 4yr avg: 1.006. Currently 39% of 4yr range (0.871–1.199). | Neutral |
| Reserve Risk ↗ | 0.0005 |
2nd all-time percentile — near all-time low. Buy zone: <0.002. Sell zone: >0.02. Extremely low risk relative to HODLer conviction. | Bullish |
| VDD Multiple | 0.4939 |
26th all-time percentile. Range: 0.069–4.46, avg: 1.06. Below 1.0 = low coin-days destroyed; HODLing behavior dominant. | Bullish |
| Fear & Greed ↗ | 25 — Fear |
22nd percentile of 4yr range (5–94, avg 47.5). Fear zone (25–49). Extreme Fear <25. Contrarian buy signal historically. | Bullish (contrarian) |
| CDD-90dma ↗ | 8.19M |
Low relative to bull-market peaks. Low CDD = HODLing behavior; old coins not moving. Consistent with accumulation phase. | Bullish |
| NRPL (USD) ↗ | -$63.57M |
35th percentile of 4yr range (-$5.14B to +$9.16B, avg +$382M). Negative = net losses being realized. Not extreme capitulation (4yr low was -$5.14B). | Neutral |
Overall on-chain signal: 5 Bullish 3 Neutral 0 Bearish — constructive accumulation setup.
Note: open-interest-1h data was unavailable — open interest trend analysis is based on the cross-exchange snapshot only. Confidence on OI trend is reduced accordingly.
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Funding Rate ↗ | +0.0001 (mark: $63,912) |
Near-zero positive — longs marginally dominant but not crowded. No squeeze risk from funding alone. Neutral-Bullish |
| Open Interest (Total) ↗ | ~$29.3B (Binance $9.24B + Bybit $4.04B + OKX $2.64B + Bitget $2.63B + Deribit $1.46B + Gate.io $3.94B + KuCoin $1.64B + Huobi $2.16B + others) |
Significant absolute OI. Trend unavailable (1h data missing). High OI with near-zero funding = balanced market. Neutral |
| Global Long/Short Ratio | 1.6469 (Longs: 62.22% / Shorts: 37.78%) |
Longs outnumber shorts ~1.65:1. Not extreme (danger zone typically >2.0). Moderate long bias. Neutral |
| Top Trader Long/Short (Position) | 0.6151 long ratio |
Top traders are 61.5% long — consistent with global ratio. Smart money not heavily skewed. Neutral |
| Taker Buy/Sell Ratio | 1.0061 (Buy: 2,635.5 / Sell: 2,619.5 BTC) |
Marginally more aggressive buying than selling in spot/perp markets. Slight bullish tilt. Neutral-Bullish |
| Liquidations (July 30) | Total: $9.74M | Longs: $1.87M | Shorts: $7.87M |
Short liquidations dominated 4:1 — recent price uptick squeezed shorts. Suggests short-side was overcrowded. Bullish (short squeeze) |
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Skew Index | 56.763 (Skew Risk Score: 77.19) |
Elevated skew risk score (77/100) — options market pricing significant downside risk. Put demand elevated. Bearish |
| On-Chain Risk Index | 50.07 (Moderate zone) |
Composite risk in moderate territory — not extreme fear or greed. Neutral |
| STH Risk Index | 48.56 |
STH-specific risk near midpoint — STH behavior not yet signaling capitulation extreme. Neutral |
| Macro Risk Index | 24.45 |
Low macro risk score — on-chain macro signals are constructive despite external headwinds. Bullish |
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Daily ETF Flow ↗ | -859.9 BTC (July 28) |
Net outflow — institutional selling on the latest available day |
| Total ETF Holdings ↗ | 563,936 BTC (July 28) |
Significant absolute holdings but flow trend is deteriorating |
| July 2026 Monthly Inflows | ~$205M (per CoinDesk) |
Lowest monthly ETF inflow on record — anemic institutional demand |
| Prior months | May: -$2.43B | June: -$4.52B |
Heavy outflows in prior two months; July is a recovery but barely |
Per-issuer ETF holdings breakdown (IBIT vs FBTC vs GBTC) is not available in the current data snapshot — we cannot attribute flows to specific issuers at this time.
Coinbase Premium Index ↗: +0.6898% (Coinbase: $65,226.86 vs Binance: $64,780.02). A positive Coinbase premium indicates US institutional/spot demand is leading price — this is a mild bullish signal for institutional demand, contrasting with the weak ETF flow data. It suggests some US buyers are active in spot markets even as ETF flows remain weak.
Strategy (MSTR) stock at $97.74 — significantly off its highs. The CheckOnChain Orange Monthly (July 2026) notes "a significant break-down in Strategy's preferred and common stock prices" and describes the current environment as "late stage bear" dynamics. Smarter Web Company sold 178 BTC (~$11.7M) to repay a convertible instrument, with the CEO stating convertibles are "not currently the right capital solution" — a signal of stress in the BTC treasury model at current prices.
| Metric | Value | Context & Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Hashrate ↗ | 935.17M TH/s |
68th percentile of 4yr range (156M–1.31B, avg 652M). +399.5% over 4 years. Network security at near-record levels. Hash Ribbons signal: Down (bearish short-term miner signal). Neutral |
| Puell Multiple ↗ | 0.7911 |
Below 1.0 — miners are earning below their annual average. Historical buy zone: <0.5. Not at extreme lows but constructive. VanEck notes hash price at ~$30.6/PH/s/day, compressing daily revenue to $28.5M — lower-efficiency rigs at/below breakeven. Bullish |
| Miner Balances | 726,337.87 BTC (data: Oct 2025 — STALE) |
This data point is 9 months old — treat with caution. Cannot reliably assess current miner selling pressure from this figure. Data Stale |
| Bitcoin Macro Score | 2/4 signals positive |
sigSupplyProfit=1 (bullish), sigLthNetPos=1 (bullish), sigHashRibbons=0 (bearish), sigCostBasis2yr=0 (price below 2yr cost basis of $85,763). Mixed. Neutral |
| 2yr Cost Basis | $85,763 |
Current price ($64,828) is 24.4% below the 2-year cost basis — a significant underwater position for 2-year holders. Bearish signal for this cohort. Bearish |
Mining Summary: The Puell Multiple at 0.7911 signals miner revenue stress — historically a medium-term bullish signal as unprofitable miners capitulate and selling pressure eventually abates. The Hash Ribbons "Down" signal is a short-term caution flag (typically precedes a recovery signal when ribbons cross back up). Miner balance data is stale (Oct 2025) and cannot be relied upon for current selling pressure assessment — this lowers confidence in the mining section.
0.19010.2371-0.0511.31 — LTHs hold coins at 31% above their aggregate cost basis. Neutral zone (historical peaks: 3.5–3.9 in 2024–2025). Declining from peak of 3.884 (Mar 2024).0.9051 — When LTHs do sell, they are