Bitcoin LTH & STH Cohort Report — 2026-10-26

⛓ Bitcoin On-Chain Analyst Report

Report Date: Monday, October 26, 2026 | Analysis Scope: 30 Days | Cycle Position: ~63% through 4-year halving cycle

BTC: $80,038.91

1. Executive Summary

LTH distribution is the dominant signal: LTHs have reduced their supply by ~157,000 BTC over 30 days (30d net position change: -156,915 BTC), while STHs have absorbed ~+199,000 BTC. LTHs are distributing; STHs are accumulating — a classic mid-cycle handoff.
On-chain metrics are mid-range, not extreme: MVRV at 1.49 (36th all-time percentile), NUPL at 0.33 (Hope zone), and Reserve Risk at 0.0006 (7th percentile) all point to a market that is neither overheated nor in distress.
ETF flows are deeply inconsistent: The 30-day average ETF flow is -162 BTC/day, with the most recent reading a large outflow of -7,822 BTC (Oct 22). Institutional demand is not yet providing a sustained tailwind.
Derivatives are calm but lopsided long: Funding rate is 0% (flat/neutral), yet the global long/short ratio is 2.23 — a crowded long positioning that creates liquidation risk on any sharp downside move.
Macro backdrop is mixed: BTC is trading in line with equities (30d correlation to Nasdaq: +0.65) and the DXY (US Dollar Index) at 101.7 is relatively benign. Global M2 (total money supply worldwide) is growing at +7.72% YoY, providing a medium-term liquidity tailwind.

Overall Market Verdict: Bitcoin is in a mid-cycle consolidation / cautious distribution phase — on-chain fundamentals remain constructive long-term, but near-term price action is capped by LTH selling, inconsistent ETF flows, and a crowded derivatives book. Confidence: Medium — data is comprehensive but ETF flow data is 4 days stale (last reading Oct 22) and open-interest 1h data is unavailable.

2. Market Cycle Position

We are 919 days past the April 2024 halving, approximately 63% through the 4-year cycle, with ~539 days to the next halving (~April 2028). Historically, this phase (roughly 2–2.5 years post-halving) has corresponded to the mid-to-late bull market, where distribution from long-term holders accelerates and price action becomes increasingly volatile and sentiment-driven.

Metric	Current Value	All-Time Percentile	Cycle Interpretation
MVRV ↗	`1.4891`	36th	Well below euphoria (3.5–4.0 at cycle tops). Neutral-to-early-bull territory. All-time avg: 2.24.
NUPL ↗	`0.3284`	36th	"Hope" zone (0.25–0.50). Not yet "Optimism" (>0.50). Tops historically at >0.75 (Euphoria).
RHODL Ratio	`1,264.33`	—	Elevated vs 1-month avg (1,084.54), suggesting coins are aging. Not at cycle-top extremes.
AVIV	`1.0136`	44th	Essentially at fair value (1.0). All-time avg: 1.11. No overvaluation signal.
MVRV Z-Score	`0.8598`	44th	Below 1.0 — historically a "buy zone." Tops occur above 7. All-time avg: 1.46.

Cycle Verdict: All four cycle indicators (MVRV, NUPL, RHODL, AVIV) are in the lower-to-middle range of their historical distributions — consistent with a mid-cycle bull market that has not yet reached speculative excess. The market has significant room to run before reaching historical top zones, but the near-term trend across all four metrics is declining over the past 30 days, reflecting the current price correction.

3. Macro & Cross-Asset Context

Traditional Market Snapshot (as of Oct 23–26, 2026):

Asset	Level	BTC 30d Corr.	BTC 90d Corr.	Signal for BTC
DXY	`101.68`	`-0.054`	`-0.321`	Mildly Bullish — DXY near 101 is benign; negative 90d correlation is normal (dollar weakness historically helps BTC)
Gold	`$366.61`	`+0.283`	`+0.533`	Bullish — BTC increasingly correlated with gold on 90d basis; both benefiting from macro uncertainty
S&P 500	`759.97`	`+0.598`	`+0.359`	Neutral — High 30d correlation means BTC is trading as a risk asset; equity weakness = BTC headwind
Nasdaq	`704.40`	`+0.654`	`+0.339`	Neutral — Strongest 30d correlation of any asset; BTC is behaving like a high-beta tech play
VIX	Not available	—	—	Data not provided; cannot assess
2y/10y Yields	Not available	—	—	Data not provided; cannot assess
TLT	`81.34`	`-0.006`	`+0.064`	Neutral — Near-zero correlation; BTC is not currently tracking bond markets

Global M2 Liquidity (as of Oct 19, 2026): Global M2 money supply stands at $124,614.64B, growing at +7.72% YoY. This is a meaningful liquidity expansion — historically, rising global M2 has been one of the strongest medium-term tailwinds for Bitcoin. The lag between M2 growth and BTC price response is typically 3–6 months, suggesting the liquidity backdrop remains supportive into Q1 2027.

Stablecoin Dry Powder: Total stablecoin supply is substantial — USDT $182.4B, USDC $71.6B, DAI $4.5B — representing significant sidelined capital that could re-enter crypto markets.

Risk-On / Risk-Off Verdict: The macro environment is mildly risk-off in the short term — BTC has dropped 5.2% over 30 days alongside equity weakness, and its high 30d correlation to Nasdaq (+0.65) confirms it is trading as a risk asset. However, the 90d picture is more nuanced: the DXY correlation is negative (-0.32) and the gold correlation is positive (+0.53), suggesting BTC is also beginning to attract some "store of value" demand. The overall backdrop — benign DXY, expanding global M2, and large stablecoin reserves — is constructive for BTC on a 3–6 month horizon even if near-term headwinds persist. VIX and yield data are unavailable, which limits our ability to fully assess the tightening/easing dynamic; confidence is accordingly reduced.

4. On-Chain Signals Table

Metric	Value	Historical Context	Signal
MVRV ↗	`1.4891`	36th all-time percentile. Range: [0.40, 443.98]. Avg: 2.24. Tops: 3.5–4.0+. Below 1.0 = capitulation. 30d trend: ↓ from 1.59 (−6.2%).	Neutral
NUPL ↗	`0.3284` (Hope zone)	36th all-time percentile. Range: [−1.53, 1.00]. <0 = Capitulation; 0–0.25 = Fear; 0.25–0.50 = Hope; 0.50–0.75 = Optimism; >0.75 = Euphoria. 30d trend: ↓ from 0.37 (−11.3%).	Neutral
SOPR ↗	`1.0015`	43rd all-time percentile. >1 = coins moved at profit; <1 = at loss. Barely above 1.0 — holders just breaking even on average. 30d avg: 1.0044.	Neutral
Reserve Risk ↗	`0.0006`	7th all-time percentile — extremely low. Range: [0.0004, 1.0]. Low Reserve Risk = high HODLer conviction relative to price. Historically a strong long-term buy signal.	Bullish
VDD Multiple	`1.0566`	63rd all-time percentile. Range: [0.07, 4.46]. Avg: 1.06. At the average — neither elevated distribution nor suppressed activity. Neutral.	Neutral
Fear & Greed ↗	`50` (Neutral)	30d range: [50, 74]. 30d avg: 63.4. Collapsed from Greed (74) on Sep 26 to Neutral (50) today — a −32.4% drop in sentiment. 0–24 Extreme Fear; 25–49 Fear; 50 Neutral; 51–74 Greed; 75–100 Extreme Greed.	Neutral
CDD-90dma ↗	`12.16M`	CDD-90dma at 12.16M. Moderate level — not at the elevated readings seen at cycle tops. Suggests some but not extreme long-dormant coin movement.	Neutral
NRPL (USD) ↗	`$71.24M`	NRPL at $71.24M — positive but well below the 30d avg of $327M and the 30d peak of $2.31B (Oct 22). 30d trend: ↓ −47%. Modest net profit-taking.	Neutral

5. Derivatives & Options Positioning

Futures Open Interest (as of Oct 25, 2026):

Exchange	Open Interest
Binance	`$11.12B`
Bybit	`$5.81B`
OKX	`$3.33B`
Gate.io	`$4.52B`
Total	`$24.79B`

Funding Rate (Oct 26, 00:00 UTC): 0.00% — perfectly flat. Mark price: $80,114.40. A zero funding rate indicates neither longs nor shorts are paying a premium; the market is balanced in terms of carry cost. This is a neutral/healthy reading — no crowded-long squeeze risk from funding alone.

Long/Short Ratios (Oct 26, 08:00 UTC):

Global Long/Short Ratio: 2.23 (69% long, 31% short) — significantly skewed long. This is a crowded long book.
Top Trader Long/Short Ratio (Position): 1.67 (62.5% long, 37.5% short) — also long-biased, but less extreme than the global ratio. Smart money is somewhat more hedged than the crowd.

Taker Buy/Sell Ratio (Oct 26, 07:00 UTC): 1.11 (buy vol: 993.9 BTC, sell vol: 895.3 BTC) — marginally more aggressive buying than selling in the most recent hour. Mildly bullish short-term flow.

Liquidations (Oct 25, 1d): Total: $8.39M. Long liquidations: $5.80M (69%). Short liquidations: $2.60M (31%). Longs are being liquidated at more than 2:1 vs shorts — consistent with the ongoing price decline. Not a catastrophic liquidation event, but the bias confirms downward pressure.

Options Positioning: The on-chain risk index provides a skew index of −9.12 with a skew risk score of 26.39. A negative skew index indicates that put options (bets on price falling) are priced at a premium relative to calls (bets on price rising) — a defensive/bearish options positioning. Dedicated options IV (implied volatility) and put-call ratio data are not available in the provided dataset; we note this gap and weight options analysis accordingly.

Derivatives Verdict: The combination of zero funding rate (healthy) but crowded long positioning (global ratio 2.23) and negative options skew (−9.12) creates an asymmetric risk setup: a sharp move down could trigger a cascade of long liquidations, while a move up would be amplified by short covering. The 1h open interest data is unavailable (noted gap), which limits real-time squeeze assessment. Net positioning: Cautiously Neutral — Long Squeeze Risk Elevated

6. Institutional Flows

ETF Flows (most recent data: Oct 22, 2026 — note: 4 days stale):

Total BTC held in ETFs: 679,015.87 BTC
Most recent daily flow: −7,822.09 BTC (Oct 22) — a large single-day outflow
30-day average daily flow: −161.8 BTC/day — marginally net negative over the period
30-day flow range: [−7,822 BTC, +6,430 BTC] — extreme volatility in both directions

As noted by Ecoinometrics (Oct 23) ↗, the longest streak of consecutive inflow days in October was just 3 days, and the longest outflow streak was 2 days — compared to streaks of 7+ inflow days earlier in the year. This confirms that ETF demand is inconsistent and indecisive, with no sustained institutional accumulation trend.

Notable flow events in the 30-day window:

Oct 19: +6,430 BTC — largest single-day inflow of the period
Oct 21: +6,277 BTC — second largest inflow
Oct 22: −7,822 BTC — largest single-day outflow, immediately reversing the two-day surge
Oct 7: −5,849 BTC — second largest outflow

Per-issuer ETF holdings breakdown is not available in the current dataset (etf-holdings-btc/usd per issuer not returned). We cannot distinguish IBIT vs FBTC vs GBTC flows at this time.

Corporate Treasuries / MSTR Ecosystem: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) stock is at $146.01. French Bitcoin treasury firm Capital B reported a net loss of €69.5M ($78.1M) for H1 2026, driven by a ~€67.5M Bitcoin impairment charge (per The Block, Oct 16 ↗). This highlights the accounting risk for corporate BTC holders when price is below their cost basis.

Coinbase Premium Index (Oct 25): Coinbase price: $80,053.16 vs Binance: $80,154.09. Premium index: −0.1259 — slightly negative. A negative Coinbase premium means US-based spot demand is lagging offshore demand, suggesting US institutional buyers are not leading the market right now. This is a mild bearish signal for near-term institutional demand.

Institutional Flow Verdict: Institutions are neither accumulating nor distributing in a sustained manner — flows are highly volatile and net-negative over 30 days. The negative Coinbase premium and the large Oct 22 outflow are near-term bearish signals. The two large inflow days (Oct 19–21) suggest latent demand exists but has not yet converted into a trend. Cautiously Bearish Short-Term

7. Mining & Network Health

Metric	Value	Context	Signal
Hashrate ↗	`1.15 EH/s`	30d change: +13.1%. 30d range: [867M, 1.20B]. Currently at 86th percentile of 30d range — near the top. Network security is strong and growing.	Bullish
Puell Multiple ↗	`1.1285`	Puell Multiple just above 1.0 — miners are earning slightly above their annual average. Not in the danger zone (>4 = top signal; <0.5 = capitulation). Neutral miner selling pressure.	Neutral
Miner Balances	`726,337.87 BTC`	Note: Data is dated 2025-10-27 — one year stale. This figure should not be treated as current. We flag this as a significant data gap.	Stale Data
Hash Ribbons Signal	`Up`	The 30d hashrate SMA (`1.03B`) is above the 60d SMA (`985.99M`), confirming a "Hash Ribbons Buy" signal — miners are recovering/expanding, not in distress.	Bullish

VanEck's Bitcoin ChainCheck (Oct 19 ↗) highlights that miners converting to AI data centers face a power constraint rather than a chip constraint — with only ~2% of the interconnection queue energized in 2025. This structural shift means some miners may be less reliant on BTC price for revenue, potentially reducing their need to sell BTC to cover operating costs.

Mining Verdict: Network health is strong — hashrate is near 30d highs (+13.1% over 30 days), Puell Multiple is neutral (no distress selling), and Hash Ribbons are signaling expansion. Miner balance data is one year stale and cannot be used. Overall: Bullish for Network Security; miner selling pressure appears low.

8. Holder Behavior — LTH vs STH Cohort Analysis

This is the most critical section of this report. The LTH/STH divergence is the dominant on-chain narrative.

Valuation: Where Each Cohort Stands

Metric	LTH	STH	Interpretation
MVRV	`1.6457`	`1.0546`	LTHs are sitting on 64.6% unrealized profit on average. STHs are barely above breakeven (+5.5%). LTH-MVRV has declined from 1.73 to 1.65 over 30 days; STH-MVRV from 1.16 to 1.05 — both cohorts losing paper gains.
NUPL Zone	`0.3924` — Hope/Optimism border	`0.0518` — Fear zone	LTHs are in the Hope zone (0.25–0.50), approaching Optimism. STHs are in the Fear zone (0–0.25) — barely above zero. The two cohorts are in DIFFERENT zones, which is itself a signal: LTHs are comfortable; STHs are anxious.
SOPR	`1.2472`	`0.9998`	LTHs are spending coins at a 24.7% average profit — actively realizing gains. STHs are spending at essentially breakeven (−0.02%) — not panic selling, but not profiting either.

Realized Profit/Loss: Who Is Driving NRPL?

Cohort	NRPL (Oct 25)	30d Trend	Interpretation
LTH	`+$80.14M`	Volatile; peaked at $624M (Oct 7), had a massive outflow of −$811.94M on Oct 22	LTHs are the primary profit-takers. The Oct 22 negative spike (−$812M) is notable — a large LTH cohort sold at a loss or below their aggregate cost basis on that day, possibly forced selling or a large OTC block.
STH	`−$8.90M`	Highly volatile; peaked at $3.12B (Oct 22), currently negative	STHs realized a massive $3.12B profit on Oct 22 (likely the large NRPL spike visible in total NRPL of $2.31B that day — note the LTH loss partially offset STH gains). Currently STHs are realizing small losses — consistent with STH-SOPR at 0.9998.

Supply Flows: Coins Aging In or Out?

Metric	Value (Oct 25)	30d Change	Interpretation
LTH Supply	`16.35M BTC`	↓ from 16.57M (−220K BTC over 30d)	LTH supply is declining — coins are being spent and "rejuvenated" into the STH cohort. Distribution in progress.
STH Supply	`3.75M BTC`	↑ from 3.52M (+230K BTC over 30d)	STH supply is rising — new buyers are absorbing LTH distribution. Demand is present but at lower prices.
LTH Net Position Change (30d)	`−156,916 BTC`	Accelerating: was −13K on Sep 26, now −157K	LTH distribution has accelerated significantly over the past 30 days. This is the single most important bearish signal in the dataset.
STH Net Position Change (30d)	`+198,770 BTC`	Accelerating: was +35K on Sep 26, now +199K	STHs are absorbing supply aggressively. This is a bullish demand signal — new money is entering at current prices.
LTH Net Position Change (7d)	`−59,924 BTC`	Elevated; peaked at −78,607 (Oct 10)	Weekly LTH distribution remains elevated, though slightly off peak.
STH Net Position Change (7d)	`+85,513 BTC`	Near 30d high	Weekly STH accumulation is accelerating — new buyers stepping in.

Holder Behavior Verdict: The market is in a classic mid-cycle LTH distribution / STH accumulation handoff. LTHs (in the Hope/Optimism NUPL zone, SOPR 1.25) are systematically selling into strength, having offloaded ~157K BTC over 30 days. STHs (in the Fear NUPL zone, SOPR ~1.0) are absorbing this supply near breakeven. This is not a capitulation event — it is orderly distribution. The key question is whether STH demand can keep pace with LTH selling. Currently it is (STH net position +199K vs LTH −157K), but if price falls further, STH SOPR will go negative and panic selling could ensue. The Check On Chain newsletter (Oct 26) ↗ frames this as a potential "disbelief rally" — where fundamentals are better than sentiment suggests.

9. Exchange Flows

Metric	Value	Context	Signal
Exchange Reserve ↗	`2.89M BTC`	Total BTC held on exchanges. Context: lower exchange reserves = less sell pressure (coins in self-custody). 2.89M is the current level; trend analysis below.	Neutral
Exchange Netflow (Oct 25)	`+670.9 BTC`	Positive = net inflow to exchanges (potential sell pressure). 30d avg: +1,698 BTC/day. Current reading is below average — modest inflow.	Neutral
Exchange Netflow (30d range)	`[−3,473, +25,306]`	The Oct 6 spike of +25,306 BTC was a massive single-day inflow — likely a large institutional deposit or OTC desk movement. Current position at 14th percentile of 30d range.	Neutral

30-day Exchange Flow Narrative: The 30-day average netflow is +1,698 BTC/day — a net inflow trend, meaning more BTC is moving onto exchanges than off. This is a mild bearish signal (more potential sell pressure). However, the Oct 6 anomaly (+25,306 BTC) heavily skews this average. Excluding that outlier, the trend is more mixed. Recent days (Oct 20–25) show alternating small inflows and outflows, suggesting the market is in equilibrium rather than a clear distribution or accumulation phase at the exchange level.

Active Addresses (Oct 25): 607,289 — at the 30d low (range: [607K, 850K], 0th percentile). A 13.2% decline over 30 days. Falling active addresses suggest reduced on-chain activity and potentially waning retail interest.

Exchange Flow Verdict: Mild net inflow trend to exchanges over 30 days (bearish), but recent days are more balanced. Falling active addresses suggest declining retail engagement. Smart money (large wallets) does not appear to be making dramatic moves to or from exchanges in the current window. Mildly Bearish

10. Historical Cycle Comparison

Metric	Current (Oct 2026)	2020–2021 Bull Peak Range	2022–2023 Bear Market Range	Assessment
MVRV	`1.49`	3.5–4.0+ (Jan 2021 peak ~3.96)	0.5–1.0 (Nov 2022 bottom ~0.56)	Well below bull peak; well above bear bottom. Mid-cycle.
NUPL	`0.33` (Hope)	0.70–0.80 (Euphoria at tops)	−0.20 to 0.00 (Capitulation)	Hope zone — consistent with mid-cycle accumulation/early bull, not late-stage euphoria.
Reserve Risk	`0.0006` (7th pct)	0.01–0.05+ (tops)	0.0004–0.001 (bottoms)	Near all-time lows — historically a strong long-term buy signal. Similar to late 2020 before the major bull run.
Fear & Greed	`50` (Neutral)	75–95 (Extreme Greed at tops)	5–25 (Extreme Fear at bottoms)	Neutral — sentiment has reset from Greed (74) just 30 days ago. Not yet fearful enough to be a contrarian buy signal.
SOPR	`1.0015`	1.02–1.05+ (sustained profit-taking)	0.97–0.99 (sustained loss realization)	Barely above 1.0 — holders just breaking even. Not the sustained profit-taking of a bull peak.
Hashrate	`1.15 EH/s`	~150–200 EH/s (2021 peak, pre-China ban)	~100–150 EH/s (2022–2023)	At all-time highs in absolute terms — network has never been more secure. Bullish structural signal.
AVIV	`1.01` (44th pct)	2.5–3.0+ (2021 tops)	0.5–0.8 (2022 bear)	At fair value. Significant upside before reaching historical top zones.

Cycle Comparison Verdict: Current metrics are broadly consistent with the mid-cycle phase of a bull market — similar to Q3 2020 or Q2 2021 (before the final blow-off top). No metric is in the "danger zone" associated with cycle tops. The primary difference from 2020–2021 is that ETF flows and institutional demand are less consistent, and LTH distribution is more pronounced at this price level.

11. Risks & Opportunities

⚠️ Key Risks

Accelerating LTH Distribution: The 30d LTH net position change has accelerated from −13K to −157K BTC over the past 30 days. If this pace continues, it will overwhelm STH demand and push prices lower. Evidence: LTH-SOPR at 1.25 (active profit-taking), LTH supply declining from 16.57M to 16.35M BTC.
ETF Flow Reversal Risk: The Oct 22 outflow of −7,822 BTC is the largest in the 30-day window. If institutional sellers dominate ETF flows for multiple consecutive days, the negative Coinbase premium (−0.13) could deepen, removing a key demand pillar. The 30d average flow is already negative (−162 BTC/day).
Crowded Long Liquidation Cascade: The global long/short ratio of 2.23 means 69% of futures accounts are long. With price already below key moving averages (SMA7: $81,743; SMA50: $81,813), a break below $79,000–$78,000 could trigger a cascade of long liquidations, amplifying the downside. Long liquidations already exceed short liquidations 2.2:1 ($5.8M vs $2.6M on Oct 25).

🚀 Key Opportunities

Reserve Risk at Historical Lows (7th Percentile): Reserve Risk at 0.0006 is near all-time lows — historically one of the most reliable long-term buy signals. This indicates HODLer conviction is extremely high relative to the current price opportunity. Similar readings in late 2020 preceded major bull runs.
Global M2 Expansion (+7.72% YoY): With global money supply growing at $124.6T and accelerating, the macro liquidity backdrop is the most supportive it has been in years. Historical analysis shows BTC price tends to follow global M2 with a 3–6 month lag, suggesting a potential tailwind into Q1–Q2 2027.
STH Accumulation at Scale: STHs have absorbed +199K BTC over 30 days — a significant demand signal. STH-NUPL at 0.05 (Fear zone) means new buyers are near their cost basis, reducing the likelihood of panic selling and creating a potential "coiled spring" if price recovers above their entry levels.